Ron Paul has two major advantages in the 2012 Republican Primary compared to 2008. Firstly, candidates now win delegates to the nominating convention on a proportional basis to the vote they won, rather than the ‘winner-takes-all’ approach last time. In 2008, Paul won 10% of the votes in Iowa but did not win a single delegate as Mike Huckabee won the state and so won all the delegates. This time around, Paul won 21% of the votes in Iowa, and will get approximately that proportion of delegates. Secondly, Paul’s improved performance in the recent Iowa caucuses indicates that he will continue to reap the benefits of running a second time with an established infrastructure and greater experience allowing his campaign to perform better in the coming primaries.
Continue Reading... Ron Paul & The Reagan Coalition

Allan Lichtman correctly predicted the popular vote winner in the last 7 US presidential elections. How did Lichtman do it? By using a model developed with Volodia Keilis-Borok, a Russion seismologist. Lichtman, an American political historian, and Keilis-Borok met at a conference and then started collaborating on a project to predict the winner of US presidential elections. Lichtman and Keilis-Borok applied a statistical pattern recognition model analysis over all presidential elections till 1980 to identify particular factors that would contribute to the victory or defeat of an incumbent president. Lichtman has correctly forecast the popular vote winner of all presidential elections since 1980 using the model: