The Narrowing Election

by Ali-Asad

Jog your memory back a couple of months to June 3rd 2008. Barack Obama claimed the Democratic party’s nomination for President in front of a wildly enthusiastic audience. This audience had every right to feel hopeful:

"If we are willing to work for it, and fight for it, and believe it, generations from now we will be able to look back and say that this was the moment we began to provide jobs to the jobless, care to the sick…”

He looked unstoppable.

But a couple of months on, today, the situation looks a little different. An Obama victory no longer appears secure - take the electoral map. This year, the Democrats seek to expand the map and compete in very ‘red’ states. But Obama leads in these states by very narrow margins: Virginia, Montana, North Dakota, Nevada and Indiana. Additionally, Obama’s lead in states where the ‘experts’ expect him to win remains equally fragile: Ohio, New Hampshire, Michigan, Colorado and New Mexico. Obama’s success over the last several months has made him vulnerable to criticisms of over-confidence and arrogance. These attacks could cost him dearly and the McCain’s campaign understands this reality.

In the last few weeks, John McCain has focused on Obama character and demeanor by trying to mock his extraordinary self-assurance in facing the enormous challenges of the 21st century. These attacks, while in poor taste and very unMcCain-like, have brought Obama down to Earth in the polls and in public perception.

Understand this: Obama barely leads in the polls and public surveys consistently demonstrate John McCain’s high standing in terms of experience and national security. So, Obama may be doing well now but the week before the election and election day itself that will really make or break his candidacy. If Obama-enthusiasm wanes, the contest will narrow to the point of being a dead-heat, and then all bets are off. McCain just needs to hang in there because anything could still happen, and something will.

And that's jus' the tip.