It’s officially over. Hillary Clinton finally conceded less than a week after Barack Obama reached the magic number to clinch the nomination. In reality, Obama had the nomination in the bag many months ago. After the February 5th Super Tuesday states voted, Obama and Clinton were essentially tied. Then, Obama went on an 11 state winning streak and amassed a 100+ delegate lead; those hundred delegates ended up being his winning margin.
Towards the end of the campaign, as she was getting desperate, Hillary made the electability argument. Hillary claimed she was better positioned to defeat John McCain in November. She may have been right. Here, we’ll look at the Clinton blowout scenario that will never be. Then again, there’s always next time.
As usual, we’ll start at the 252 electoral votes that John Kerry managed to win against President Bush in 2004. How could Hilary have blown out McCain. Easily. Very easily is the answer.
Let’s start with Ohio (20) and Florida (27). Kerry narrowly lost Ohio but lost Florida to Bush by a significant margin. Ohio has been trending Democratic because of the corruption in the state Republican party. Also, Ohio has been hardest hit by the slowing economy and has led the nation in increasing anti-war sentiment. Clinton would take Ohio over McCain because of these advantages and her ability to connect with working class voters. In Florida, Clinton would nullify McCain’s appeal to older voters, and so would be a favorite in Florida. Clinton moves to 299 Electoral votes (EVs) – 270 needed to win. She’s already over the top.
Arkansas (6), West Virginia (5), New Mexico (5) and Iowa (7) would also go to Clinton. With their years in Arkansas, the Natural State is Clinton territory. The Democrats lost West Virginia in the last decades because of their inability to connect with working class voters who are culturally conservative. Hillary can connect with those voters and bring West Virginia back into the Democratic column. New Mexico is probably the most purple state in the Union. A popular governor, shifting demographics and a strong state party would deliver the state to Hillary. Like New Mexico, Iowa is an extremely purple state. But the exciting Democratic primary race and current political winds would be enough to switch Iowa to Democratic for Hillary. She has 322 EVs.
Another factor in the Hillary blowout would have been her ability to keep Republican target states safely blue. Michigan (17), Pennsylvania (21) and New Jersey (15) would have remained safely Democratic had Hillary been the nominee. With Obama as the nominee, Republican strategists will target all three and aim to switch at least one of those states to the Republican side.
Hillary would have won by bringing together the traditional Democratic coalition of women and blue-collar workers. Obama will seek to bring in more young, affluent and Independent voters. The current political atmosphere favors the Democrats tremendously. And for once, when picking a nominee, the Democrats went with their heart (hope – Obama) rather then their head (experience – Hillary).
And that’s jus’ the tip.
