The Obama Blowout Scenario

Last time we looked at the recipe for a McCain ‘blowout’ – A 50 Electoral Vote (EV) victory isn’t really a blowout. But under the current circumstances, it is. And it could happen. Easily.

How about the other scenario – an Obama blowout?

This scenario has everyone excited. Barack Obama has the potential to completely remake the electoral map by putting states into play that Democrats would never have considered. On the other hand, he’s weaker in traditionally Democratic states that have been trending Republican – hence his potential to get ‘blown out’. So, what would an Obama blowout look like? Firstly, you will definitely see blue in some interesting places. Let’s take a look;

We of course start with Kerry’s 252 EV performance against Bush back in 2004. How will Obama get past and beyond the 270 he needs to win?

The Southwest looks like potent pickings for Obama. Last time, we detailed how Arizona (10), Colorado (9), Nevada (5) and New Mexico (5) are all turning bluer and more progressive. McCain has represented Arizona in the Senate for over 30 years, and so we safely say that McCain will hang on to his home state. Otherwise, an effective party infrastructure, popular local politicians and favorable demographics will let Obama pick off Colorado, Nevada and New Mexico. Obama gains 19 from the Southwest, and with that he’s already won – 271 EVs.

The Atlantic South ranks up there with the Southwest on Obama’s hit-list. North Carolina (15) and Virginia (13) both present new opportunities for the Democrats. Just like the Southwest, the demographics of the states are trending more progressive and democratic. Also, North Carolina’s state party is strong while Virginia has some big-name, well-liked politicians representing the state. The trio of Tim Kaine (current governor), Jim Webb (current junior senator) and Mark Warner (former Governor and current candidate for senate) all hail from Virginia and would be on anyone’s shortlist for Vice-Present; they all suit Obama in terms of the change message. North Carolina will be harder to pull than Virginia. But Obama could easily do it. 28 EVs in the bank. Obama’s up to 299 EVs.

Iowa (7) looks, feels, smells and tastes like Obama country. He has built an awesomely powerful infrastructure in the state; this same infrastructure helped him win the primary that kickstarted his candidacy and will help him in against McCain. Iowans have never really been fond of McCain. Obama has this one. Obama’s past 300 – 306 EVs

Will Obama flip Ohio (20) back to the Democrats side? The white people of Ohio are probably more sick of the war and NAFTA than any other place in the country. If anyone will forgive Obama for not being a cultural conservative, it will be Ohians. This state will be close. But Obama has a better than even shot. Obama – 326 EVs.

If this wasn’t enough of a blowout, current analysis shows Obama may have a good chance in the very traditionally republican states of Missouri (11), Indiana (11) and South Carolina (8). This hope could be based on a record turnout amongst black people. But Obama’s appeal seems to reach everywhere with the young and affluent – those who the ‘hope’ message resonates with. These above three states would give Obama an almost 200 EV victory in November. But those states don’t lean Democratic enough to be part of the blowout scenario. But even without them, a blowout it is.