Nasrallah v Government: ENDGAME

by Yasmin Amer

Lebanon’s worst fear is coming to a gruesome reality. There are fears that the so-called “Paris of the Middle East” might be heading back to another civil war. After Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah’s press conference Thursday morning, street fights escalated between opposition fighters and government supporters. Nasrallah stated that the government declared war by investigating and trying to shutdown Hezbollah’s private communications system. Nasrallah justified Hezbollah’s private phone network by calling it a part of the “resistance movement”— referring to the resistance of western powers.

“We don't have the technologies that the Americans and Israelis have," he said, calling the government's investigation "a declaration of war and the launching of war by the government ... for the benefit of America and Israel" (Aljazeera English).

What’s the Issue?

There are multiple opposition groups in Lebanon and with the country in a state of political instability, it’s obvious that a lot of them are trying to gain political influence—Hezbollah is no exception. Hezbollah, which literally means “Party of God,” is a Shia Muslim opposition group in Lebanon. Although the party received major criticism after fighting Israel in 2006 (mainly from the Lebanese government and the west), they gained a lot of supporters across the Arab world because of the fact that Israel was unable to defeat them.

Hezbollah made an offer to the Lebanese government asking for one-third of seats in parliament to be allocated for opposition groups. This offer includes ALL opposition groups; Hezbollah by itself will have a fraction of that one-third. What this does is install an additional system of checks and balances because that one-third has the power to veto any laws proposed by congress. Nasrallah found this necessary especially after the 2006 war when government officials refused to support the war against Israel. He basically referred to the current Lebanese government as a tool of the west and called out some of the leaders for leaving Lebanon during wartime. Nasrallah said that he refuses to put that same offer back on the table since the government remains incompliant. He also said that his demands will change, which probably means that Hezbollah will demand even more influence within the Lebanese government.

A Continuous Cycle

This is how I’m seeing the situation; Hezbollah continues to demand power and the government continues to say no. Then Hezbollah gets fed up and demands an increase in the power that was never granted in the first place and the government will again say: NO.

It is difficult to say if Hezbollah is an effective political party and whether or not its influence in Lebanese government is a positive or negative thing—that’s a different issue. But this situation could have been handled differently so that there is less risk of civil war and turmoil.

The main problem is timing. Hezbollah’s demand for reform came at sensitive moment in Lebanon’s history. After the 2006 war, Lebanon became an extremely volatile nation. People were divided politically and it didn’t help that a lot of the parties involved claim a certain religious affiliation.
Here are some of the present parties and their religious affiliations in Lebanon:

• Hezbollah (“Party of God”)— Shia



• Al Mustaqbal (“Future” Party)— Sunni



• Free Patriotic Movement— Maronite Christian



• Amal (“Hope” Party)— Shia



• Progressive Socialist Party— Druze



• Lebanese Forces— predominantly Maronite Christian

The last thing Lebanon needed was an issue that could divide its citizens even more. The nation needed more time to recover after wartime before being introduced to the idea of government reform. Seeking power might have also been more effective and less risky if it came later and during an official election period. Instead, not only did it come at a time of political turmoil, Hezbollah’s motives for the 2006 war were also in question—with some saying that it was waged in order to gain political power in Lebanon. This obviously did not help their image with critics.

Another major problem is the lack of a mediator. Middle Eastern nations are polarized, with one backing one side or the other. Obviously the whole “I’m a Sunni-Shia nation” dichotomy is playing a significant role in determining who supports whom. In addition, many western nations already label Hezbollah as a terrorist organization, which makes them unable to mediate fairly.

Now What?

Neither side is backing down but it’s too early in the conflict to say what will happen. Nasrallah has a reputation of being strong in character so I doubt he’s going to back down easily. Also, the government does not want to negotiate with Hezbollah in order not to give them any recognition as a legal political party. Without a compromise between Hezbollah and the government, the fighting could escalate over time and eventually transform into a full civil war. Nevertheless, I’m hoping that neither side wants to risk another time period like 1975-1990, a period of intense sectarian struggle in Lebanon’s history...watch this space.

And that's jus' the tip.

* Yasmin Amer is an aspiring broadcast journalist who specializes in Arab and Middle Eastern affairs