The McCain ‘Blowout’ Scenario

by Ali-Asad

It’s election night - November 4th 2008. All the results are in and you see the following map displayed across all the networks:



The numbers at the bottom of the screen catch your attention.

McCain: 297         Obama: 241

You stare transfixed at the screen. You see that checkmark next to McCain’s name (I hate it when they do that). Then it sinks in. Another 4 years of a Republican president, at least 4 more years in Iraq…what happened?

If you think this scenario is far fetched, you’re the one who’s in dreamland. But I empathize. The incompetence, mismanagement and ideological subversion of this administration remain no longer a partisan issue. Scott McClellan, a trusted Bush insider who served as press secretary by not answering a straight question on white house policy for two years just came out with a memoir confirming our worst fears. This administration sustained itself through partisan and ideological hackery in order to push through their agenda. It’s as simple as that.

So how do we go from the tainted Republicans in Congress and the White House to John McCain beating Barak Obama by 48 Electoral Votes (EVs)? This margin may seem close. But with the current anti-Republican sentiment in the country, a McCain victory by any margin is a blowout. Obama has run a historic and impressively skillful campaign. But when you analyze the election state-by-state as a Obama versus McCain fight, the math increasingly does not add up.

Take Michigan (17), Wisconsin (10), Pennsylvania (21) – three states Kerry won by less than 5%. They’ve been trending Republican and Obama has a problem convincing white males to vote for him. Hillary has gotten more white male votes than Obama, and Republicans have taken the white male vote convincingly in the last few election cycles. This leaves Obama down 38 electoral votes from Kerry’s performance. (If you can’t remember, Kerry won 252 EVs versus Bush’s 286). So, Obama’s down to 204 EVs.

Obama himself has pretty much written off Florida (27), which has trended Republican since 2000. This traditional swing state may now be the most reliable key state in the nation. Why? One reason is old people – Obama is racially defined candidate in only some parts of the country. But across the nation he is more defined by class and generation. I don’t need to remind you how many old people there are in Florida. Obama’s stays at 204 EVs by not winning the Swing Sunshine State.

And the people of New Hampshire (4) have a love affair with McCain that goes back to his 2000 presidential run. Obama’s down to 200 EVs. Pretty lame.

Where can Obama come back from?

The Southwest hold some promise. Arizona (10), Colorado (9), New Mexico (5) and Nevada (5) have all been trending more Democratic and progressive. Nevada’s state Democrats haven’t been successful recently and so Obama’s lacks much of an infrastructure to build a win there. McCain takes Arizona purely based on home-court advantage. This analysis leaves Colorado and New Mexico with favorable demographics and popular state Governors. Obama gets 14 EVs here. This brings him up to 214 EVs.

Based on infrastructure and general McCain apathy alone, we can put Iowa (7) in Obama’s column – 221 EVs.

Ohio (20) presents the same obstacles that Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin present – white rural voters. But the Ohio Democratic part has done well for the state, and Ohioans are increasingly anti-war – witness the election of Sherrod Brown, a liberal anti-war Democrat, against Mike DeWine, a run of the mill republican in the 2006 senate election. Obama can pull Ohio in – 241 EVs.

It takes 270 EVs to win. McCain makes it. Obama could come short. Easily.

And that's jus' the tip.

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