Obama-Hillary or Hillary-Obama?

by Ali-Asad

The shine has come off Barack Obama’s campaign in the last couple of weeks. Firstly, on February 29th, Hillary Clinton’s campaign rolled their now infamous ‘3am’ ad asking a pointed question: who would you want to be President in the middle of a crisis? Obama countered with an ad of his own stressing his judgment in opposing the Iraq vote from the start. You can see both ads here. But Clinton’s ad seems to have resonated with voters. Exit polls showed late deciders in Ohio and Texas going to Clinton by large 20+ point margins. Then on March 3rd, the day before the Texas and Ohio primaries, the AP press agency got hold of a memo detailing a meeting between Obama economic advisor and Canadian official where Obama’s advisor said that Obama’s NAFTA rhetoric was just political posturing. Obama countered that the memo was not important and the Canadian government went to great lengths to deny the event. In any case, this story questioned Obama’s character and image and a truth-teller who seeks to move away from the ‘politics of the past’. Also, this story called into question Obama’s commitment to help those in Ohio who have been affected by free trade. On the same day, Obama held press conference where he was peppered with questions about his ties to Tony Rezko, a supporter who is currently on trial for corruption. Rezko’s trial will continue throughout the primary campaign. Obama’s reputation for honesty could be damaged if the trial finds new information that Obama did not disclose about his dealings with Rezko. This barrage of negative stories calls into question Obama’s invincibility as a candidate. Now, democrats are revaluating who really would be the strongest candidate against McCain.

The next important primary will take place on April 22nd in Pennsylvania. This state should be Clinton-country so a loss here would be a significant, but not fatal, setback. Obama narrowly leads Clinton in delegates. This lead is unlikely to change either way significantly because delegates are allocated proportionately in the democrat’s primaries. A Florida and Michigan revote will not change the numbers significantly. Hence, unless a deal is reached, the nomination contest will likely go to the Democratic convention in late August where the politician-delegates (superdelegates) will decide the nominee. But a tie-breaking decision by superdelegates would be extremely unpopular especially if they side with the candidate that got fewer votes – that would be Clinton right now but even the popular vote is quite close. Either way, the Democratic Party would be damaged by a very undemocratic selection of their nominee. Democratic officials understand this sentiment and will do anything to avoid it. Hence, Hillary Clinton’s suggestion last week that the process may be heading toward a ‘dream’ ticket with both rivals joining forces. But who would head the ticket?

Obama argues that his appeal to independents and republicans makes him the right choice to take on McCain – the so called Obamacans who are fed up with Republican Party and desire a fundamental change. This argument is less convincing in light of recent polls showing a significant presence of McCainocrats – Democratic voters who put a great deal of importance on national security issues. McCain’s experience and independent thinking appeals to these voters, and so they would favor McCain over Obama. Hillary can now make a counter-argument to Obama by saying that she can cancel out McCain’s foreign policy advantage. This counter attacks Obama’s weakest area – his lack of foreign policy experience. Democrats now really need to ask if they want Obama at the head of the ticket.

The only way to resolve the contest before the convention would be to hash out a deal. Before Ohio and Texas, Hillary had a greater incentive to compromise and offer herself as a VP candidate because Obama had all the momentum. Hillary would have preferred to be on the ticket in some fashion rather than leave the primary contests as a defeated former frontrunner. But choosing Hillary would undermine Obama’s central theme of change.

Now, Hillary has regained some strength and remains committed to the race. She has found some potent points of attack that have helped her campaign and put Obama in trouble in addition to blunting his momentum. If she secured the nomination at the convention, she would be under huge pressure to pick Obama as her running mate in order to unify the party and reward his exceptional campaign.

So, as time goes on, the chances of an Obama-Hillary ticket get slimmer while the chances of a Hillary-Obama ticket increase but the overall chances of a deal are dwindling. Either way, one needs to secure the nomination first. With no deal, we’re off to the convention.

And that’s jus’ the tip.

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