Behold the Marathon Primary Season (R)

by Ali-Asad

"Democracy is being able to vote for the candidate you dislike the least"
Robert Byrne

In the democratic version of this same post, I speculated that the republican race was too chaotic to analyze because 5 different candidates could potentially win the first 5 primary contests. Before today, January 19th, three different candidates had won in the first three primaries. And now Nevada and South Carolina have spoken; Nevada to McCain (with Paul in a surprising second) and South Carolina to McCain over Huckabee in a very tight race. Do these results make the Republican primary race less chaotic? Yes, but barely. So let’s review: Huckabee surged from nowhere to take Iowa. Then, McCain came from behind to beat Romney and take New Hampshire. A Michigan victory helped Romney stay in the race, and Gov. Romney has managed to win Nevada mainly because the other candidates forfeited the race (except for Paul who came in 2nd). And in the latest twist, McCain is poised to put to rest the demons of 2000 by securing a tight win in South Carolina by beating Huckabee. What does this all mean?

McCain is in driving seat. There’s no doubt about it. McCain’s victories have been tough wins where for most of the campaign season he has been way behind and counted out. The media loves to tell a compelling narrative and John McCain provides one. Look out for the media to swoon over McCain and prematurely declare this (South Carolina) moment as the defining moment when he secured the candidacy. It’s a lovely tale. Last summer his campaign was broke and suffering in the polls. The media wrote his obituary. And now, McCain has come back to win in New Hampshire and exorcise the demons of 2000 by winning in South Carolina. But there’s a problem with McCain being in the driving seat; there are still 5 candidates trying to grab on to the wheel and they each have their own different strategies for doing so. The next primary contest will take place in Florida on Jan. 29th. Enter Guliani.

The Guliani campaign endlessly talks about how in Florida Guliani will make his first stand and then ride his Sunshine Wave all the way through the delegate-rich states on Super Duper Whooper Tuesday, Feb. 5th. We must give credit to the Guliani campaign; he has successfully convinced the media of his strategy, and so they have given him a relatively free pass up until now. But Guliani has put all his eggs into a Floridian basket. The Guliani campaign will counter by saying that while all the other candidates have spent their time in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina, Rudy has cultivated a broad base of support by focusing his time and attention on Florida. There’s one major flaw to this argument. The other candidates have been getting just as much attention and publicity in Florida, and they’ve managed to do this for free. How? They’ve all been in the news since Iowa. Once the Iowa results were in, the media transformed into full campaign mode – talking endlessly about all the candidates except Guliani. So, unless Guliani pulls of a big 5 to 10 point margin victory in Florida, he will have little credibility and perceived electoral viability going into Tsunami Tuesday.

The Paul campaign is going through a credibility crisis. Ron Paul has yet to place 3rd or better in a competitive primary - the media will attach an asterisk to his Nevada 2nd place citing the very little amount of time and money candidates put into that state. This situation leaves Paul in a hopeless position; he must do really well in Florida and hope the media talks about him enough for him to gain the appearance of viability and credibility as a mainstream candidate. But, unlike Thompson, Paul has money. If Paul runs effective television ads, he may succeed in drawing some independents out to vote for him. Unfortunately, the Democratic race is so exciting that a lot of the people who want drastic change support Obama and Edwards. In the end, Paul will need to win or come second in most of the Feb 5th states to stand a change of accumulating enough delegates to win the nomination. Being a libertarian maverick, he cannot rely on the support of any other candidate. I’ll say it again: Ron Paul, run as a Libertarian Party candidate. This will serve to increase the credibility and popularity of the most established third party in America. America needs a seriously competitive third party.

Thompson looks poised to finish in 3rd just piping Romney for 4th. This result does not work for Thompson. He’s from the south and needs to be winning a state like SC in order keep his campaign going otherwise the money and support will dry up. Some reports state that Thompson will stay in the race till Florida’s primary. I see very little point in this endeavor. Unless Thompson beats Guliani decisively and goes on to get a huge amount of media attention, Thompson will simply not have enough money to compete (buy ads) in the Feb. 5th primary states when around half the delegates will be decided. If and when Thompson drops out, look for him to get on the McCain juggernaut.

With wins in NH and SC under his belt, McCain has the wind at his back going into Florida and Feb. 5th. How did McCain manage to come from behind and take the lead? Simply put, establishment conservatives have not found a champion, and so they’ve been splitting their votes between Huckabee, Romney and Thompson. This split has allowed McCain to capture the security hawks along with the more independently minded conservatives. Another factor may be electability; The media perceives McCain as the most competitive republican against the democrats because of national head-to-head poll numbers – these mean very little because electoral votes are designated by state and polls have this small note at the bottom that reads ‘margin of error’. Guliani positioned himself as the best republican to stop the Clinton machine because of his competitiveness in the North-East. But with the ascent of Obama, who better to defeat a freshman hopeful senator than an experienced war hero like John McCain. Remember, the republican establishment does not like McCain and so all bets are still off. Huckabee has the same problem.
Exit polls show that Huckabee consistently wins the plurality of voters who go to church more than once a week and does not do well with less frequent churchgoers. These exit polls show that Huckabee has not expanded his base of support much from the evangelical/religious crowd. Fiscal conservatives don’t like his track record as governor and national security hawks don’t like his talk about George Bush having an “arrogant foreign policy”. This opposition presents a serious problem for Huckabee but could also be his biggest strength. A fair number of southern states will vote on Feb. 5th. If Huckabee wins those states look, for Huckabee to use those delegates later as a bargaining chip to secure the vice-presidential nod (a very likely outcome in the event of a McCain nomination).

And then finally, there’s Romney who has tried to be everything to everyone. This perception of pandering has hurt seriously and probably cost him New Hampshire. He will have a tough time uniting the ‘Reagan coalition’ of social, fiscal and national security conservatives if no one believes him. Having said all that, Romney has money, and so should be well positioned for Feb 5th. But he has not yet one a competitive primary contest and so has not achieved the name recognition that other candidates have by accumulating over time (McCain and Guliani) or spectacularly surging (Huckabee). It will be a very tough uphill battle for Romney. This primary campaign has scarred to the point of not even being a viable VP candidate. The charge of flip-flopping sticks.

Behold the marathon primary season! It does not matter who is in the driving seat but which candidate(s) are still in the car at the finish line...

References

Thompson plans to go on to Florida - Boston Globe

Behold the Marathon Primary Season (D) - Jus' the Tip

South Carolina Exit Poll - CNN Election Center

Understanding Margin of Error - Jus' the Tip