“Maybe they’ll vacillate until the bitter end, leaving it all up to the final primary in South Dakota in June. And that would be great. Finally, instead of allowing a few thousand corn farmers to decide the fate of the nation, we could place the power where it rightfully belongs, with a few thousand wheat farmers.”
~Gail Collins
From January 3rd in Iowa to June 3rd in Montana and South Dakota, voters will choose over 2,500 delegates to decide the presidential nominee for both the democratic and republican parties. Each state gets a certain number of delegates based on how much that state has supported the party in elections. But each party uses a different methodology. The democrats use the proportion of voters who voted democrat in the last 3 elections and the number of votes that state has in the electoral college whereas the republicans use a base number of delegates determined by the size of the state and that base number is topped up by bonuses for voting republican in a presidential elections, electing a republican senator etc. Interestingly both parties will include so called ‘superdelegates’ to help nominate their party’s candidate.
These superdelegates have not been elected and include members of congress and National Committee members. There will be around 800 democratic superdelegates and 600 republican superdelegates around to help select a nominee come convention time in late August/early September.
So, you would think the candidates would target delegate rich states. But that’s not the case; their focus is Iowa. Why? Two words – Momentum & Media. As the conventional primary wisdom goes, the Iowa caucuses test the candidates for the first time. This primary demonstrates whether a candidate can really win an election. And once candidates proves themselves to the serious Iowa caucus-goer, they have it made. The nation’s press will shine their spotlight on the winner making everyone aware that Iowa has just picked a winner. This media coverage generates momentum allowing the candidate to slingshot their way to victories in New Hampshire and South Carolina. This snowball effect allows the candidate to then ‘run the tables’ securing the nomination for their party. That is the conventional wisdom. That was John Kerry’s road to the nomination in 2004. Will 2008 follow the convention? This question can only be answered by considering the two major parties separately.
The above conventional scenario is most plausible in the democratic race. According to Intrade.com(a fascinating online exchange where people can trade contracts involving real world events), Obama has a 35% chance of winning Iowa, with Hilary at 34% and John Edwards and 27%. In other words, the contest in Iowa is extremely close. This fact makes winning Iowa all the more important. It is very easy to see the winner of Iowa go on to take the nomination. Take 3 different scenarios;
Obama wins Iowa narrowly but his victory shows that he is electable and so he goes on to win in New Hampshire all but securing his candidacy. Black voters in South Carolina realize that this black kid might actually win and come out to support him in droves. His nomination is secured.
Hilary wins Iowa narrowly but surely. The recent lowering of expectation helps fuel intense media coverage and the aura of inevitability comes back. This aura makes winning in New Hampshire and South Carolina a cakewalk. The nomination is hers.
Edwards wins in Iowa. The media puts it down to solid organization and a resonating message. Edwards loses New Hampshire narrowly to Hilary but goes into South Carolina confident. Then, Edwards speaks to the soul of the party and argues for winning based on left-wing principles. He looks electable and takes South Carolina and goes on to the take the nomination.
The last scenario does have some kinks in it. If Edwards wins in Iowa, it will be a narrow win. Obama and Clinton have the money and the name-recognition to fight and claw back the nomination. Also, a Richardson or Biden 3rd place showing in Iowa could make the primary voters take a second look at the more experienced candidates. But I can only see that happening in the case of Joe Biden.
Now, for the republicans;
I’m not even going to try separating this race into possible scenarios; I can conceive a situation where four different candidates win the first five primaries. A crazy thought I know. So, how much does Iowa matter in this race? Not a whole lot. The pundits now assume Mike Huckabee will take Iowa. But a victory in Iowa will hardly help him in New Hampshire where McCain and Romney are battling it out. Could Thompson come back and give Huckabee a run for his money in South Caroline. Maybe Febuary 5th will save Guliani with the 20+ delegate-rich states voting. But an Iowa upset is not completely off the cards: Romney could come back to win, a strong showing by Paul could help him appear more electable, a strong 3rd place for Guliani would boost his depressed campaign like nothing else. The republicans are disorganized like never before. But their intense scrap for the nomination has helped them understand that, in the end, Iowa only has 40 or so delegates.
The Iowa caucuses will take place on January 3rd followed by the New Hampshire open primary (independents can vote) on January 8th.
And that’s jus’ the tip.
References
Paging the lesser of 8 evils, Gail Collins
2008 Democratic Nation Convention, Wikipedia
Convention Delegates, The Republican Source
